Portuguese premier Marcelo Caetano is now fighting to hold on to his position following last month's military crisis, when the military chiel of staff, General Costa Gomes, and his deputy, General Antonio de Spinola, both lost their jobs.
The crisis developed following the Portugal and the Future, in which he argued for a drastic change in Portugal's colonial policy. The immediate controversy which it aroused dramatically illustrated the divisions in the ruling class, brought about by the army's failure to crush the African resistance movements.
somo quaco ms proposals trom position of immense national prestige.
Baned during four years in which he commanded one Focupuese mibtary campaips against the PAIGC guerrillas in Guine-Bissau, no main conson -pase recy on this experience-was that Portugal cannot hope fot an outright military victory in Mozambique and Angola. Instead, he Found, a poutica solution mast be It b known that Cactano himself is sympathetic to such viows, and has tecentV besun to try to win African support for a possible federal solution. In Mozambique, for instance, he has permitted Atrican teachers and nroles sionals to form a nationalist pressure group for Africanising the state and achieving nominal "independencu"
MILITARY SETBACKS
The military background to this situagon Dos in the socagy senes of solacks suffered by the Portuguese arined forces in Africa. No less than 166,000 troops are now tied up by the guerrillas. A civil war atmosphere now exists in une-Massau, three quarters od the territory is controlled by the PAIG, and sinee a natonal assempey in abcrated territory declared independence in late 1%te tenas been recognised as the legal authority by 93 of the 153 states belong ing to the United Nations.
Progress has aiso been made by te two guerrilla groupings in Angula, publication of General Spinola's book, MPLA and SLNA, although circumStances aru more untavouroe here due to heavy imperialst wavesiment in oll TANHUELIONS However, it is in Mozambique that the most sinking advance Have bean made by the African guerrillas of Fretime. Stnce the New Year the vital rail link between Rhodesia and the port of -Bcia has come under stick almost every week.
Moreover, the guerrillas are also winning support even turner soul, putting at risk the vital oil supply route between the capital, Lourengo Marques, and Knocca. This has badi shaken the settlers' faith in the army's defensive capability, as well as underlining the policy divisions in Lisbon.
The debate has taken on such impor sance because it actually poses an ultimerIn tot the torturouse capita let cass: Integration into the Common Sancer SION Wars.
Al the moment, defence spending accounts for at last 40% of Portugal's annual budget. The economy-dominated by foreign and particularly British capitalnow tate or investment torturaese workers, low paid and lacking the most clementary trade union rights, are leaving in drows since they can pet better wards as immigrant labour in countries like France Is 1972, Portugal made an agreement with the Common Market, and will lose Rents confined to barracks. dismissal by Admiral Tomas.
for such a solution by developing an its interests after independence. or continued stagnatión as a result of the well uare of the importance of comhating ату 1973. such a heavy defence burden will end up by jeopardising the very goals of national survival to which such expense is devoted ULTRA-RIGHT The importance of this debate, and the pressing nature of the problems facing the Portuguese ruling class, is shown by the sharp reaction of the ultra-right. Gathered around the president, Admiral Tomas, they moved quickly to dismiss Spinola and his superior Costa Gomes, and to neutralise their supporters in the middle ranks of the army. An abortive attempt to march on the capital by 200 troops of the 5th Intantry Regiment was halted, and dissident elemThe new chief of staff is General Luz Cunha, a firm supporter of Tomas and of Portugal's current policy in Africa. Ass purge begins of unreliable elements in the anny, Caetano's position too is in doubt. He has now disavowed the case for autonumy in hopes that this will prevent his Thus Portugal's brief flirtation with the Idea of pursuing a neo-colonial policy seems to have come to an end for the moment. This was probably inevitabie, since unlike Britain it has taken no steps to prepare African petty bourgeois layer to rule in in any case, the guerrille groups are any such ploy - thanks in particular to the writings of Amilcar Cabral, the leader of the PAIG who was assassinated in JanuIMPERIALIST ALLIES Portugal is also under heavy pressure from its imperialist allies —the US, Britain, NATO and South Africa to maintain its sary to defend the growing imperialist em Africa investment in oil and diamonds, and to shot up the white settler states of souchMaintaining a policy of brutal repression in Africa - soldier is seen hare burning dow native huts — accounts for at least 40% of Partugal's annual budget But as the dismissal of Spinola, his backing from middle ranking offleets, and the abortive coup of 16 March all show, the strain is beginning to tell PETER JENKINS