The "peace plan" has now been signed by the United States. The war in Indochina, however, is by no means over. In South Vietnam it has entered a new phase. In Laos and Cambodia it continues with the same intensity as before.
Nevertheless the signing of the treaty has led to one important gain for the Vietnamese revolutionaries: the United States has, for the first time since the beginning of the war, stopped bombing both North and South Vietnam and arrangements for the withdrawal of American troops are reported to have been completed. The real significance of this retreat will be felt and understood in the coming months not only in South Vietnam, but also in the rest of the world.
DUAL POWER The situation in South Vietnam today is a situation of dual power. There are two contending armies representing two opposing class interests confronting each other throughout the country. The fighting in the first week after the "ceasefire" will probably stop for a few weeks, but it demonstrates the impossibility of a compromise. It is impossible for 3,000 foreign observers to agree on which side actually fired the first shot. Thus "violations" of the "truce" will continue to take place up and down the country. What we are likely to see developing is a situation which alternates between "neither peace nor war" and open civil war.
The Thieu regime is clearly confronting a desperate situation. the morale of the puppet army is going to deteriorate still further with the withdrawal of its American overlords. In addition NLF propaganda asking puppet soldiers to retur to their homes in the liberated areas, where landlordism has been totally liquidated and where the peasant-s oldier can till their own land, will also have a powerful impact. That is why Thieu has been sending: his soldiers to burn down villages on the outskirts of Saigon where the NLF has mass support, why he has been shooting down communists in the cities and why he refuses to release the 200,000 political prisoners incarcerated in South Vietnamese prisons.
WAR WILL GO ON Dual power by its very nature cannot exist indefinitely. Either one class or the other has to assert its authority sooner or later. Given the fact that the LF has explicitly refused to retreat, leave alone disarm its soldiers, and that the North Vietnamese have refused to withdraw any of their troops, it is obvious that the war will go on, regardless of which aide "violates" the "peace". Even if the Russians and Chinese (as part of a secret agreement) stop supplying the Vietnamese with military hardware, provided the Americans stay out (and it would be tactically extremely difficult for them to resume the bombing), this will not be a major problem for the liberation forces. Once the civil war resumes, the puppet regime will not be able to exist for long without international support. A great deal, however, depends now on the rise of a new mass upsurge in the cities and in the countryside. The masses in Southern Vietnam have shown an amazing resilience over the last three decades. A resurgence of the mass movement would bring the masses into direct and open conflict with the Thieu regime in the cities and provide the basis for a final NLF offensive to overthrow this corrupt and wretched puppet administration. This is why the combativity of the South Vietnamese masses and the orientation of the Vietnamese Communist Party are going to be the two decisive Part of IMG contingent on massive Indochina demo 20th January-see report on page 2.
factors in the months which follow. In Laos and Cambodia no official "ceasefire" has been signed. American planes are therefore concentrating on unloading their bombs on these two countries to make up for the loss of target practice over Southern Vietnam. In both Laos and Cambodia the puppet regimes of Lon Nol and Souvanna Phouma are extremely weak militarily and politically. Both the Pathet Lao and the Red Khmer control nearly two-thirds of their respective countries. An end to the bombing would in their cases lead to quick victories.
That is why the plan for a new Indochina Conference with China, Russia, France, Britain and the United States has to be condemned outright. None of the Big Powers have any right to dictate terms to the Laotian and Cambodian people who have waged as heroic a struggle as their Vietnamese comrades and are approaching victory. The lessons of Geneva in 1954 are obvious to all concerned. MAINTAIN RED ALERT The international solidarity movement must, in these circumstances, maintain a red alert not only in relation to Vietnam, but also to Laos and Cambodia. We must be ready at short notice to come out on to the streets if any attempt is made at the conference table to take away from the Laotian and Cambodian liberation forces what they have already won on the battlefield.
The last few weeks have shown us the power of the international solidarity movement. Any effort now to turn this movement into small propaganda/discussion clubs would have a demobilising effect on the militants who have once again begun to appreciate the importance of this revolution. This is why more demonstrations have to be planned for the future. Not on the absurd basis that Nixon should adhere to the "peace plan" (this is a legalistic argument which Nixon will use against the Vietnamese to justify another intervention if the need arises), but on the basis